俄烏戰爭對全球貿易之影響

Abstract

2022年2月24日，俄羅斯入侵了烏克蘭，導致俄烏戰爭正式爆發，激烈的戰事引發許多傷亡，不只對兩國皆造成傷害，而且還影響了更深遠的世界經濟。這樣的戰爭對於俄羅斯以及烏克蘭兩國以外的其他國家，造成的損失會多嚴重？美國、歐盟(歐洲聯盟, European Union, EU)和其他國家會採取什麼樣的方式去制裁俄羅斯？而俄羅斯又會以什麼樣的條件來控制住整個局面？這些都是我們將會在報告中仔細討論且會呈現的議題。 戰爭所導致的後果，也會是各國所擔心的，因俄羅斯為能源生產大國，烏克蘭則是農產品供應大國，與俄烏兩國有著密切交流和貿易關係的中國和波蘭，將會是首當其衝。跨國企業也會受到一定的影響，俄烏兩國不只提供能源及糧食，還提供了半導體、汽車業所需的金屬原料，若是戰火不止，勢必對全球經濟產生巨大影響，相關資源的物價也會逐漸上升，讓各國陷入通貨膨脹的危機。這份報告將分析相關產業對此次戰爭的應對方式，也會探討在能源及糧食上擁有優勢的俄烏兩國，會如何影響整個產業供應鏈。 台灣與俄烏有著許多貿易往來，但這次戰爭的影響，對於台灣來說是相對是比較小的。而目前台灣經濟被影響的範圍預計不大，但在物價及油價上漲之下，通貨膨脹的狀況可能會變得難以控制。 因此我們經過資料分析及整理之後，了解到俄烏戰爭對全球經濟及貿易上的直接與間接影響，我們也將繼續探討各國未來的走向，且著重於國與國之間的貿易往來。

In February 24, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine resulted in the Russian-Ukrainian war broke out. Fierce war led to great casualties, not only damaged the relations between two countries but also affected the world economy even further. How much losses will the war cause to other countries except for Russia and Ukraine? What kind of way will the United States, EU (European Union) and other countries take to sanction Russia? And what conditions will Russia use to control the whole situation? These are the topics we will discuss and present in the report. The consequences of the war also be a matter of concern for countries. Because Russia is a major producer of energy, and Ukraine is a major supplier of agricultural products, China and Poland are bearing the brunt of trading, which have close exchanges with Russia and Ukraine. Multinational corporation will also be affected, Russia and Ukraine provide not only energy and agricultural products, but also metal raw materials for the semicondutors and automotive industries. If the war does not stop, it definitely have a great impact on the globle economy, and the price of resources will gradually rise, causing countries in danger of the inflation crisis. This report will analyze how related industries finded the ways to cope, and also explore how Russia and Ukraine, which have advantages in energy and agricultural products, affect the entire industrial supplt chain. Taiwan has many trade ties with Russia and Ukraine, but the impact of the war is relatively small for Taiwan. At present, Taiwan’s economy is not excepted to have much impact, but with the hiking price and the rising of oil price, inflation may become uncontrollable. Therefore, after analyzing and sorting out the data, we can understand the direct and indirect impacts of the Russian-Ukrainian war on the globle economy and trade, and we will continue to discuss the future development of countries, and focus on trade between countries.