颱風事件對於股價報酬的影響：以水泥業為例

Abstract

本文主要探討颱風對台灣股市股票報酬的影響，研究中我們使用了莫拉克、蘇迪勒和凱米颱風，以及水泥業個股的每股盈餘、累積異常報酬做分析。我們檢驗了颱風前、後累積異常報酬的二種不同期間的報酬，(1)颱風來前三天(2)颱風過後兩天。 就台股指數與水泥業的累積異常報酬來看，我們發現EPS（每股盈餘）對累積異常報酬有顯著正向影響，而PREPOST對累積異常報酬的影響並不顯著。颱風結束後的重建修繕工程皆需要大量水泥，使水泥需求量上升，卻並未帶動水泥業股價上漲，因此水泥業與颱風之間無密切的關係。

Our study is to investigate the impact of typhoons on stock returns in the Taiwan stock market. Our sample includes the cumulative abnormal returns of Typhoon Morakot, Typhoon Soudelor, and Typhoon Kemi, along with the earnings per share (EPS) as well as cumulative abnormal returns of cement industry stocks. We examined two different periods for cumulative abnormal returns: (1) the three days before the typhoon's arrival and (2) the two days after the typhoon passed. Regarding the Taiwan stock index and the cumulative abnormal returns of the cement industry, we found that EPS have a significant positive impact on cumulative abnormal returns, but the PREPOST factor did not have a significant impact on cumulative abnormal returns. Although post-typhoon reconstruction and repair projects require a large amount of cement, leading to the increase of demand, this did not result in a rise in cement industry stock prices, indicating a lack of a close relationship between the cement industry and typhoons.