地緣政治下區域貿易重組對高雄港轉口貿易之影響

Abstract

中文摘要 美中科技競爭與地緣經濟碎片化驅動下，全球供應鏈沿區域與地緣政 治重塑透過中國+1、RCEP 與 CPTPP 等區域整合重塑亞太海運貿易動向。 變遷不僅改變貨櫃起迄點，牽動貨櫃移動路徑是貨櫃匯集再分配的轉口港 口樞紐首當其衝。本研究以「地緣政治下區域貿易重組對高雄港轉口貿易 之影響」為題，聚焦地緣政治競爭下的高雄港，旨在探討區域貿易重組如 何傳導至港口層級之轉口績效。本研究採單一研究個案，結合 PESTEL 分 析與資料分析，以台灣港務公司（TIPC）、國際組織報告與航運資料庫為 基礎，檢視高雄港 2018 年至 2025 年轉口貨櫃量與轉口比率的變動。研究 顯示區域整合引發貿易轉向效果與東協新興港口樞紐崛起，共同對高雄港 的轉口貨源形成結構性壓力。短期航運中斷則進一步放大其營運波動，港 口樞紐競爭標準逐步從「規模」轉向「韌性與智慧」據此，為港務當局提 出維繫高雄港競爭力的政策建議。

Abstract Driven by US-China technological competition and geoeconomic fragmentation, global supply chains are increasingly being reorganized along regional and geopolitical lines, reshaping the direction of Asia-Pacific maritime trade through the "China Plus One" strategy and regional integration under the RCEP and the CPTPP. These shifts alter not merely the origins and destinations of goods but also the physical routes along which they move, placing transshipment hubs-where cargo is consolidated and redistributed-at the forefront of structural change. Focusing on Kaohsiung Port under conditions of geopolitical rivalry, this study investigates how macro-level regional trade restructuring is transmitted to transshipment performance at the port level. A single-case study design is adopted, integrating PESTEL analysis with secondary data analysis, and drawing on data from the Taiwan International Ports Corporation (TIPC), international organizations, and shipping databases to trace changes in Kaohsiung's transshipment throughput and ratio between 2018 and 2025. The analysis suggests that the trade-diversion effects of regional integration, coupled with the rise of emerging ASEAN hubs, impose structural pressure on Kaohsiung's transshipment cargo base, while short-term maritime disruptions further amplify operational volatility. The study contends that the basis of port competition is shifting from scale toward resilience and intelligence, and derives policy implications for sustaining Taiwan's transshipment competitiveness amid global decoupling.