中美科技競爭下亞太供應鏈重組之研究

Abstract

中文摘要 本報告探討中美科技競爭如何重組亞太地區供應鏈，聚焦人工智慧、半導 體出口管制、區域生產網絡，以及台灣與東協在其中的策略地位。研究採質性 個案研究法，並輔以比較分析、PEST 分析與供應鏈分析，回顧國際組織、政府 機關及企業年報等次級資料。研究發現，亞太地區並非單純由全球化走向去全 球化，而是企業與政府逐漸從追求極致效率轉向重視韌性、備援與政治風險管 理。半導體生產仍高度集中於台灣、南韓、日本與美國，下游製造則在「中國 加一」策略下加速移往東協經濟體；然而東協無法完全取代中國，因為許多新 興生產網絡仍高度依賴中國的中間投入、供應商與資本。RCEP 與 CPTPP 等區域 協定雖有助於降低交易成本、強化區域經濟整合，卻無法消除地緣政治風險。 研究建議台灣應強化半導體領先地位、分散出口市場、深化與民主科技夥伴的 合作，並持續投資人才培育、資安防護與永續基礎建設，以在此一混合型全球 化格局中維持競爭優勢。

Abstract This report examines how technological competition between the United States and China is restructuring Asia-Pacific supply chains. The research focuses on artificial intelligence, semiconductor export controls, regional production networks, and the strategic position of Taiwan and ASEAN. Using a qualitative case-study method, comparative analysis, PEST analysis, and supply-chain analysis, the report reviews secondary sources from international organizations, government agencies, and corporate reports. The main finding is that the Asia-Pacific region is not simply moving from globalization to deglobalization. Instead, firms and governments are shifting from maximum efficiency toward resilience, redundancy, and political risk management. Semiconductor production remains highly concentrated in Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, and the United States, while downstream manufacturing is increasingly moving toward ASEAN economies under the China+1 strategy. However, ASEAN cannot fully replace China because many new production networks still rely on Chinese intermediate inputs, suppliers, and capital. Regional agreements such as RCEP and CPTPP may reduce transaction costs and strengthen economic integration, but they cannot remove geopolitical risks. The report concludes that Taiwan should strengthen semiconductor leadership, diversify export markets, deepen cooperation with democratic technology partners, and invest in talent, cybersecurity, and sustainable infrastructure.