臺灣對中國的貿易關係

Abstract

近年來，新政府的上任，新的貿易政策 —— 「新南向政策」使我們好奇臺灣與中國的經貿關係的變化。我們透過七項重點分析，包含：(1)觀察近十年臺灣與中國的貿易數據、(2)觀察人民幣近十年的匯率變動、(3)臺灣對中國主要進出口類別、(4)臺灣對中國的投資狀況、(5)臺灣的經濟成長、(6)使用引力模型解釋臺灣與中國的貿易關係、(7)近年來臺灣對中國的政策，總觀目前的經貿概況。最終認為，不要把「新南向」與「中國大陸」市場拆開，可以都接受。好比鴻海到印度投資設廠，很多原物料可以直接從東南亞供應，也可以從中國大陸供應，不用因新南向政策就放掉中國。中國大陸是臺灣第1大出口市場、第1大進口來源，也是臺灣主要對外投資地區之一，新政策出來後，中國還是臺灣的重點區域。

Abstract In recent years, the new government took office and the new trade policy - the "new southward policy" made us curious about the changes in the economic and trade relations between Taiwan and China. We analyze seven keys, including: (1) the trade data between Taiwan and China in the past decade, (2) the exchange rate changes in the recent 10 years, (3) Taiwan's major import and export categories to China, (4) Taiwan's investment to China (5) the economic growth of Taiwan, (6) gravity model to explain Taiwan's trade relations with China, and (7) Taiwan's policies on China in recent years , a general overview of the current economic and trade situation. In the end, we believe that we should not separate the markets of new southbound and China. For example, Hon Hai invests and sets up factories in India, a lot of materials can be supplied directly from Southeast Asia, can also be supplied from China. China is Taiwan's No. 1 export market and No. 1 major source of imports. It is also one of Taiwan's major foreign investment regions. After the new policy emerges, China still is a key region of Taiwan.