兩岸經貿對我國就業市場之影響

Abstract

鑑於經濟自由化是世界潮流，各國經貿交流日熾，台灣不能自外於WTO，而目前大陸儼然是世界的工廠，故大陸之開放政策對台灣之勞動市場有舉足輕重的影響。民國91年臺灣地區的失業率達5.2﹪，即為20年來的最高點。因此，兩岸經貿是否造成國內失業？抑或帶動國內就業增加？是本研究所欲探討之課題。 本研究分別爰用Chenery et al. (1962)，Urata (1987)等所發展出之經濟成長結構變動因素分解公式，以及Han (1995)之包含行職業的就業效果的因素分解方程式，並加以結合，俾能從不同角度探討兩岸1987-1997成長結構變動來源和1987年兩岸開放探親後之勞動市場發展，此法可解析成長之因子是來自本區亦或他區，此源自他區之成長因子又可分國外及大陸(或台灣)，來自本區的則有國內需求、進口替代或生產技術等因素變化所造成之就業市場變化來源。 研究結果顯示：兩岸就業市場皆因彼此經貿交流而獲益，我國以製造業獲益為最大，大陸則以農業為最大，惟我國之農業及體力工亦同樣受益。

Since economic globalization is the trend of world business, Taiwan has to join the world trade organization. However, Taiwan's labor market is influenced by mainland China's open door policy greatly. The unemployment rate jumped to 5.2% in 2003. Whether Taiwan's labor market got benefit from cross-strait trade or not is the topic of this study.

This paper examines the sources of structural changes in output growth of Taiwan and Chinese mainland's economy over 1987-1997 using and integrating both Chenery's growth-factor decomposition method and Han's occupation factor decomposition equation within the input-output framework for analyzing the change of labor market from a demand side perspective after the open family-related visits policy in 1987. It decomposes output growth into changes in intermediate input use, domestic demand, import substitution and export components which can be decomposed into foreign trade and cross strait trade further.

It is found that the employment of industry of both areas is on the increase from cross-strait trade during 1987-1997. Especially, the manufacturing of Taiwan and the agriculture industry of mainland China got the greatest employment opportunity than the others in her own area. However, Taiwan's agriculture and physical worker got benefit also.